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Hmm, okay. I am struggling with this a bit. 

In a previous playthrough, I had managed to get the scene where you can hfr fpvrapr xabjyrqtr gb vairfgvtngr Qentbpra'f qvfnccrnenapr, but since I didn't have the necessary hints, all of the possible responses were wrong (as outlined above). I had also managed to eraqrmibhf jvgu Infuxbg, but I'm not sure how to orpbzr n Yhzra orsber gur rcvybthr. 

In my current playthrough, I did qvfpbirevat gung Mbenan vf n Abina pybar, but because I didn't get the chance to vairfgvtngr uvf qrngu, I got no closer to activating whatever's supposed to happen on turn 27. I got the opera, as usual. 

What turn does the missing event happen in? What are the prerequisites? Is it affected by Mazarin or Esmarai? I'm not sure why that option didn't even come up. 

There isn't a specific missing event on a specific turn, that's not how this works. 

You just need to find some evidence, somehow, before you do the high-Science investigation. That investigation will only happen when you have enough Science so you can choose to delay it until you think you've found a clue.

I eventually figured out why I didn't get the option to investigate. Funnily enough, I think it was because I passed a certain skill check, which led me to miss out on some vital intelligence.