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BulletEyeGames3 years ago (1 edit)

Thank you for the answers! And while you did leave out the numeric grades, your reasonings for all the points are really good, and more or less exactly what I wanted!

Though, I would like to point out that, you do, somewhat, seem to be underestimating the future (not like anyone expected the explosive popularity and addiction to social media, or Vine or TikTok, for example. FYI, I hate all three).

The reason for grading is to not make them appear black or white, and to give some more easily digestible data for my thesis (every one to loves a good graph). The scenarios are extreme, simply because I'm not expecting any 10/10 grades.

And since you seem to have a really good grasp on the topics, would you have any... (better) scenarios that you think might be worth asking about? (I'll be asking this same thing on a few other websites as well, and would like to have as good a collection of "valid" scenarios as possible when I do.)


Again, thanks for the answers, really appreciate it! Have a good day (or night)!


PS. I totally agree with you on voice recognition and speech-to-text stuff, I personally hate the mere thought of having to use them... But I also hate using smart-things and touchscreen and both of them are a thing.

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Midnight Spire Games3 years ago(+2)

I mean... if you really want those numeric ratings, I can really only rate them as follows, but I don't think they are the kinds of ratings you wanted.

1, 3, 5, 9, 10) 1; we already have this tech and these things haven't happened, I see no reason to think this will change

2, 6, 7, 8) 10; these have already happened, more or less

4) 3; if we forget about TTRPG comparisons and restrict this only to AI generation of content; it's an interesting question but I tend to doubt that AI will reach this point in my lifetime

11) 4; VNs may or may not become or remain the most popular, but they have plenty of room to become more popular

Though, I would like to point out that, you do, somewhat, seem to be underestimating the future (not like anyone expected the explosive popularity and addiction to social media, or Vine or TikTok, for example. FYI, I hate all three).

I'm not just speaking from curmudgeonly skepticism, though.  I am quite confident, for example, that audio books will not replace printed books, because audio books have been around for a long time and that hasn't happened, nor come even close to happening.  That doesn't mean that it can never happen, but it does mean that there's no reason to think that it will.  It's just not really a relevant question to ask in this day and age.

The reason for grading is to not make them appear black or white, and to give some more easily digestible data for my thesis (every one to loves a good graph). The scenarios are extreme, simply because I'm not expecting any 10/10 grades.

Are they extreme, though?  The only thing I really question "how" is around AI-powered storytelling; the real difficulty I'm having with most of these is not "how" but "why".

Consider the difference in asking whether we will ever have holodecks, and asking if holodecks will replace books.  The former is purely speculative and maybe fun to think about, but the latter is a definite no, because why would they?  Holodeck sims might eclipse novels in popularity, and perhaps it's likely that they would, but that's really all we can say.  Even Picard was depicted reading books in his office on occasion, because Star Trek itself didn't envision one erasing the other.

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BulletEyeGames3 years ago

Thanks for going through the extra effort of answering me again.

As for the Holodecks, I feel they touch more fiction in general, movies, games, etc. and I for one don't really feel them impacting books or literature any more then video games and movies do... However it did give me an idea for an additional scenario:

Visual novels will be implemented in AR and played with, for example, Google Glass.

What's your opinion on that?

And I would also like to ask for you to consider the first scenario again, this time leaving out the "audiobooks replacing traditional books" as I didn't realize people would get so caught up with that first point, and completely miss the second point of the scenario about "Interactive audiobooks, played with, for example Amazon Alexa." If you are still in the mood to answer again, I would like to know what you think about that specifically. (I did also edit it in my first post now, and in retrospect I don't know why I thought the first point was necessary to begin with.)


But thank you for answering once again, seriously!

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Midnight Spire Games3 years ago (1 edit) (+1)
Visual novels will be implemented in AR and played with, for example, Google Glass.
What's your opinion on that?

AR seems like it would work better for an adventure game than a VN.  Would it basically play like an audio book with characters shown in the overlay, without the intended backdrops?  I guess it could happen for some VNs specifically written around it, but it doesn't sound like the most compelling use case.  4/10.

And I would also like to ask for you to consider the first scenario again, this time leaving out the "audiobooks replacing traditional books" as I didn't realize people would get so caught up with that first point, and completely miss the second point of the scenario about "Interactive audiobooks, played with, for example Amazon Alexa." If you are still in the mood to answer again, I would like to know what you think about that specifically. (I did also edit it in my first post now, and in retrospect I don't know why I thought the first point was necessary to begin with.)

I didn't miss it per se, I just didn't see it as distinct from the first part.  If you still mean this as absolute replacement, I still have to give it a 1/10.  If you mean that this will emerge as a significant use case outside of accessibility reasons, maybe 4/10.  People like to control their gadgets hands-free, but any time voice interaction with games pops up, it seems to be mostly disregarded as a novelty or a nuisance.  There could be something cool that comes out and sparks more interest, but for now I'm not convinced that this is something people want.

I notice you have revised several other items.  Are you still revising the list?

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BulletEyeGames3 years ago

Thanks for the reply once more!

I can definitely agree with your reasons...

And yes, if there is a good reason for revision, such as a better alternative scenario or a good new scenario, then I will edit. If I had more replies, I wouldn't because it does somewhat make the previous answers invalid (especially if given without reasons), but with only three replies and solid reasons that can be used even without the exact scenarios, I don't think I'm losing much.

So if you have any good ideas for improving the list still, I'll gladly take them.

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