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To be honest I don't really understand the foundation of these questions.  Many of these things have either already happened, or long since failed to happen.  Thus, it doesn't make sense to me to rank them on probability.  They're not really unknown future states.

We already know that new technology and new genres of games won't make text-based games go away.  What question are you ultimately trying to answer here?

Written literature will turn fully audial, and interactive literature, such as text-adventure games and gamebooks will turn into interactive audiobooks, played on hardware such as the Amazon Alexa (like in the Skyrim: Very Special Edition trailer)

No, we've had audio books for decades.  They have not replaced printed books and are never going to. 

Interactive books, such as gamebooks and choose-your-own-adventure books will reclaim their popularity thanks to e-books and their possibility of hyperlinking paragraphs.

We've had this for decades, too.  Even in the 1990s, long before Twine, there were adventures like this published on the web.  I don't know what precisely you are envisioning when you say "reclaim their popularity", though.  They're not going to become a dominating market force that takes over the industry, but they have their niche and that niche will continue.

Text-adventure games will experience a new rise in popularity when speech-to-text features become a norm.

I don't see why.  People who need speech-to-text for accessibility reasons already use it, and few other people do, as far as I know.  Do you use speech-to-text to navigate the web or compose your emails?  I don't, though Forbes magazine probably predicted in 1994 that I would.  Games with primarily or entirely voice-driven interfaces have been tried multiple times before, and it's never taken off.  People generally don't seem to like it.

Text-adventure games will gain a new rise in popularity as a more TTRPG like format with either AI or another human player working as a ”dungeon master”, constantly generating new content and adapting to the players’ actions, such as with AI Dungeon.

I don't understand this question; we've had TTRPGs even longer than we've had text adventure videogames.  Adventure and RPG videogames have each developed along their own paths for as long as they've existed.

This question makes more sense if you pare it down to just AI-generated adventures.  Could an AI write a choose-your-own-adventure book on the fly while someone plays it?  Theoretically, I guess, but I don't see much point in speculating on that or even pursuing it as a line of development.

Text-adventure games will turn completely visual with VR and speech recognition will be used as the method for interaction (it’d be like you were telling your car how and where to drive).

The old text adventure games branched into early graphical parser adventures, which then developed fully iconographic interfaces without the need for text input, and eventually full 3D environments and controls became the norm.  Once again, none of these advancements have caused text-based games to disappear.

Hyperfiction experiences a new rise in popularity and hyperfiction platforms become more popular as people are more used to hypertext.

This is already happening thanks to Twine.

Hyperfiction will combine with point and click games and become popular thanks to touchscreens.
Visual novels will abandon text displays and turn into fully illustrated, maybe even animated, audiobooks with speech recognition used for interactivity.

Again, we already have graphic adventures.  What is really new about this?

Visual novels will fade out of popularity and be replaced by more cinematic interactive stories, the likes of Detroit: Become Human.

 Why?  They're not even the same thing.  Incidentally, the conventional wisdom in the industry about what is popular and marketable is heavily driven by what the industry is actually producing and marketing.  Graphic (and text) adventures, turn-based RPGs and strategy games, side-scrolling platformers - AAA publishers wrote off all of these and more as obsolete at one time or another to chase the latest market trends, but people are still clamoring for them decades later.  Indie games would never have exploded the way they did if there weren't vast underserved markets that the AAA industry completely ignores.

Not to mention that not everyone has the resources or even the desire to make Detroit: Become Human.  Indies will continue to make truckloads of VNs, and people will keep playing them.

Visual novels will all turn into VR experiences, such as Tokyo Chronos and Koikatsu VR, as VR technology becomes more commonplace.

I looked at Tokyo Chronos, and I guess it's literally just a VN that you put on a headset to read?  I guess there's a market for that, but I don't buy the narrative that VR is the only future for games.  In fact, of all the genres that could go heavily into VR in the future, games that already text-driven are probably the least likely.  The fact that they are text-driven is the whole appeal.  

I can see Mark Zuckerberg pitching his bold vision for the future.  Imagine putting on a headset and walking into a virtual library.  Then you can pull a virtual book off the shelf, sit down on a virtual chair, and actually open that book and read it.  Amazing!

Visual novels have reached their zenith state and will remain as the most popular form of interactive literature just as they are.

On this one, I actually don't know.  They can be the most popular form and still not have reached their zenith, but I don't see any reason to predict a dramatic shift in the near future.  I do know that they're not going to disappear because of new tech.  There's no such thing as an obsolete genre.

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Thank you for the answers! And while you did leave out the numeric grades, your reasonings for all the points are really good, and more or less exactly what I wanted!

Though, I would like to point out that, you do, somewhat, seem to be underestimating the future (not like anyone expected the explosive popularity and addiction to social media, or Vine or TikTok, for example. FYI, I hate all three).

The reason for grading is to not make them appear black or white, and to give some more easily digestible data for my thesis (every one to loves a good graph). The scenarios are extreme, simply because I'm not expecting any 10/10 grades.

And since you seem to have a really good grasp on the topics, would you have any... (better) scenarios that you think might be worth asking about? (I'll be asking this same thing on a few other websites as well, and would like to have as good a collection of "valid" scenarios as possible when I do.)


Again, thanks for the answers, really appreciate it! Have a good day (or night)!


PS. I totally agree with you on voice recognition and speech-to-text stuff, I personally hate the mere thought of having to use them... But I also hate using smart-things and touchscreen and both of them are a thing.

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I mean... if you really want those numeric ratings, I can really only rate them as follows, but I don't think they are the kinds of ratings you wanted.

1, 3, 5, 9, 10) 1; we already have this tech and these things haven't happened, I see no reason to think this will change

2, 6, 7, 8) 10; these have already happened, more or less

4) 3; if we forget about TTRPG comparisons and restrict this only to AI generation of content; it's an interesting question but I tend to doubt that AI will reach this point in my lifetime

11) 4; VNs may or may not become or remain the most popular, but they have plenty of room to become more popular

Though, I would like to point out that, you do, somewhat, seem to be underestimating the future (not like anyone expected the explosive popularity and addiction to social media, or Vine or TikTok, for example. FYI, I hate all three).

I'm not just speaking from curmudgeonly skepticism, though.  I am quite confident, for example, that audio books will not replace printed books, because audio books have been around for a long time and that hasn't happened, nor come even close to happening.  That doesn't mean that it can never happen, but it does mean that there's no reason to think that it will.  It's just not really a relevant question to ask in this day and age.

The reason for grading is to not make them appear black or white, and to give some more easily digestible data for my thesis (every one to loves a good graph). The scenarios are extreme, simply because I'm not expecting any 10/10 grades.

Are they extreme, though?  The only thing I really question "how" is around AI-powered storytelling; the real difficulty I'm having with most of these is not "how" but "why".

Consider the difference in asking whether we will ever have holodecks, and asking if holodecks will replace books.  The former is purely speculative and maybe fun to think about, but the latter is a definite no, because why would they?  Holodeck sims might eclipse novels in popularity, and perhaps it's likely that they would, but that's really all we can say.  Even Picard was depicted reading books in his office on occasion, because Star Trek itself didn't envision one erasing the other.

Thanks for going through the extra effort of answering me again.

As for the Holodecks, I feel they touch more fiction in general, movies, games, etc. and I for one don't really feel them impacting books or literature any more then video games and movies do... However it did give me an idea for an additional scenario:

Visual novels will be implemented in AR and played with, for example, Google Glass.

What's your opinion on that?

And I would also like to ask for you to consider the first scenario again, this time leaving out the "audiobooks replacing traditional books" as I didn't realize people would get so caught up with that first point, and completely miss the second point of the scenario about "Interactive audiobooks, played with, for example Amazon Alexa." If you are still in the mood to answer again, I would like to know what you think about that specifically. (I did also edit it in my first post now, and in retrospect I don't know why I thought the first point was necessary to begin with.)


But thank you for answering once again, seriously!

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Visual novels will be implemented in AR and played with, for example, Google Glass.
What's your opinion on that?

AR seems like it would work better for an adventure game than a VN.  Would it basically play like an audio book with characters shown in the overlay, without the intended backdrops?  I guess it could happen for some VNs specifically written around it, but it doesn't sound like the most compelling use case.  4/10.

And I would also like to ask for you to consider the first scenario again, this time leaving out the "audiobooks replacing traditional books" as I didn't realize people would get so caught up with that first point, and completely miss the second point of the scenario about "Interactive audiobooks, played with, for example Amazon Alexa." If you are still in the mood to answer again, I would like to know what you think about that specifically. (I did also edit it in my first post now, and in retrospect I don't know why I thought the first point was necessary to begin with.)

I didn't miss it per se, I just didn't see it as distinct from the first part.  If you still mean this as absolute replacement, I still have to give it a 1/10.  If you mean that this will emerge as a significant use case outside of accessibility reasons, maybe 4/10.  People like to control their gadgets hands-free, but any time voice interaction with games pops up, it seems to be mostly disregarded as a novelty or a nuisance.  There could be something cool that comes out and sparks more interest, but for now I'm not convinced that this is something people want.

I notice you have revised several other items.  Are you still revising the list?

Thanks for the reply once more!

I can definitely agree with your reasons...

And yes, if there is a good reason for revision, such as a better alternative scenario or a good new scenario, then I will edit. If I had more replies, I wouldn't because it does somewhat make the previous answers invalid (especially if given without reasons), but with only three replies and solid reasons that can be used even without the exact scenarios, I don't think I'm losing much.

So if you have any good ideas for improving the list still, I'll gladly take them.