Don't have any math analysis but here are the two impressions from my first two runs:
Run1: chose minigun, clicked around but never found anything to do with gold other than raw upgrade. clicked lots of circles, nothing happened. clicked squares of what appear to be other weapon bays, nothing happened. sometimes a choice popped up about how to improve my minigun but i never knew why. lost to the first large purple square i saw
Run2: found the chest thing i'm supposed to be spending my money on (i think), and got a stack of three weapons to split upgrades across. used the penality-timer things this run, but not as much as i could have. lasted to like 7:20 but then routine enemies suddenly started to overwhelm my weapons and i wasn't sure why. but i felt like i had a better overall idea of the economy. maybe my mistake was that i stopped paying attention to the penalty-reward thing. overall feeling of losing was "oh i guess i've lost" out of nowhere without any sense of it approaching. but i'm not expert in this genre.