How to know which path you are in on?
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In order to answer that question, I'd have to spoil the paths, but I can give you a non spoiler answer.
The paths start to shift with your decision when confronting Shoichi's dad on day 24. If you decide to stay quiet, you've automatically set yourself to either a neutral path or bad path. If you choose the other option, the next 2 options will significantly affect what path you go through. I already said what to choose on the first choice, but you must figure out the other 2 yourself. All I'll tell you is that you have to convinced Shoichi to go visit his mom.
Here's my understanding of the paths:
A: success
B: end the conversation
C: fail
Just to spare you a bit of worry, you know you're going through the bad route if shoichi gets mad at you. Good luck. (Hint: go big or go home. You'll get the bad route if you mix n' match. Stay firm all the way through)