"Argent's sterling reputation" did NOT go unnoticed

"no unexpected creatures, unless you count the small group of diviners" incredible wording

now, why did the prediction spell end like this? I've got a couple of possibilities in mind

1. the spell actually wasn't constructed well enough so it didn't work

2. the surges cannot be predicted by any means that the scribes know of as of now

3. this is all an inside job and a scribe responsible for it knew of diviners' calculations and just decided to not do this

4. it's not an inside job but the perpetrator just reads the newspaper and decided to not do anything

5. there WAS a surge, it was just "asymptomatic" this time

Chalk up another win for the "scribes don't actually have unique innate ability, this is a hierarchy that's being maintained for other reasons" theory...

A little confused. If the matrix is made up of a bunch of mundanes, and without conscious thought, how is it that this hasn't seen historic precedent?