Latest jossed theory:
Lukomir’s strategy seems static between runs. Made sense, given he probably had a plan before the throne vacated. Esmerai seems variable, like she was following the player around to spoil or scoop up every vote you didn’t fully lock down. Made sense, given she has fewer contacts, and a very personal grudge against you.
I tried a test run doing nothing but staying put at the starting location, flipping between negative and secretive, giving the most meek or noncommital answers to any forced questions. Despite this, Lukomir only got 23 votes. That feels oddly specific, given the less-than-seven vote threshold needed to eliminate a candidate. With the theory about Esmerai shadowing the player, and so mechanically directed by the player, it might be possible to run around “showing” her where to get just enough votes to force Zorana’s early removal, but still cause a tie. Maybe the candidates would be too afraid of the scandal of assassinating Zorana as a mere loose end if the race isn’t over. Maybe Zorana would be left assassin-free long enough to follow through on needing to make the fallback-plan choice she mentioned, while the remaining candidates were preoccupied with each other.
That would have been a super cool True Ending! The player would need to give up the Tsirkony mood anchor, endure all of the challenges of Esmerai, the lethality of a very hostile Comitia, all for a goal you needed to make broad-picture observations and deductions over multiple runs to even aim for, despite the complete lack of meta-progression, Outer Wilds style!
But nope, assassin still shows up, and the dialogue is even the same as as if you’d been regularly defeated. I was so excited when I finally managed to get a 4-14-9 result without a clear winner, too. Posting because that was a really narrow needle to thread, just in case someone else would spend a lot of time trying the same thing. :(