With all due respect to probability and your honest calculations in Mathematics.
F**k you, I followed your advice and that got me killed.
Thank you for your helpful comment in giving us the statistics.
A good decision that results in a poor outcome is simply getting unlucky. You went in with the knowledge on how to best navigate the situation and followed that advice, fate did not agree, you cannot place blame on yourself or others for things out of anyone's control. Simply take solace in knowing you did all you could.
In short: Skill issue.