here a thing with your theory. If Rasmus wins then chances are einar won't trust eyvind ever again or will feel disappointed in him or something bad. Chances may be that eyvind will ask einar to go to tavern and einar won't accept because he wants to mourn about the defeat. I am saying that because I let rasmus win.
If einar wins, not only he will trust eyvind more but also he will listen to him more. Meaning, chances of going to tavern will increase by a lot. I hope you might figure what I am trying to say that most of the people eyvind is friends with end up in tavern like Thane, Naxus. There only you will be able to trigger some scenes. Meaning tavern is necessary in order to get a scene from one of eyvind's friends.
I am not saying that einar should win. It's just a theory of what might happen and what should be done that future events go smoothly. Regardless of who will win, ensure that your eyvind's stats are high up because you will need in v0.29. There may be chances that a war might happen, not between einar and rasmus though, but it might happen as if you remember that from the war between the lizard and bull tribe, when they were celebrating the festival, the war actually begins and you have to fight creatures depending on whose side have you been. Similarly, in this case, you can choose either einar or rasmus, there will be celebration for the winner and there may be danger around the corner.