I will start by saying that this game is addictive and compelling. It also has my favorite QoL feature, that's missing from a lot of other incremental games: hovering over a number (a rate, or a capacity) actually lists in detail what numbers are contributing to it. Awesome.
Now, er, that said: are you sure your random number generator is working? I feel like 50% chances when forging fail way more often than not. In fact, I currently have a 40% chance of improving my pick, and while I don't expect that to succeed, I also don't expect it to fail on seven consecutive clicks (which is something less than a 3% chance). Possible, but aligns with my sense that the numbers are just coming out weird.