i like the idea of the theft/burglary.
But i would build it out. I would say when the player forgets to close the door the chances are higher that a thief is going for your money.
Also there could be a way to craft a lock, which decreases the chance of getting robbed.
I personaly don't like the idea of a personal guard, because in the timeline blacksmiths didn't had there personal guards.
The Blacksmiths had to pay taxes, like everyone else and the city guards should protect them.
But the idea of taxes already exists and will be implemented in the game i guess.