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I was thinking that you could have a fake out h-scene, where one of the more suspicious girls (perhaps after you've bimbo'd half their friends without building her relationship beyond a "hello") tries to seduce you. If you fall for it, she'd become indignant/furious, and unavailable to spend time with until you manually increase her bimbo to loosen her up. This might be something to implement much later, once the main paths are set in place.

As for when to normally get lewd, I'd say after or right before successfully maxing out their s-link, since they'd want to open up to the person that helped them so much. Maybe for the first h-scene you can "convince" their bimbo level up slightly? If they're bimbo'd first or early, maybe you can start h-scenes halfway through the s-link, as a way to get their bubbly minds off their troubles, although it'd take the place of actually progressing the relationship as a price (i.e. no progress bonuses from the conversation).

The first thing is a fun idea, but tough to implement since the 'lore' is that nobody notices the bimbofication except for those that have already been bimbofied. That way we don't have to write a thousand variants of the same dialogue.

Putting h-scenes at the end of s-links is a good idea, but could have tone whiplash issues based on the ending you get. See:

Bimbo Good Ending - They're happy and sex obsessed, they'll fuck you

Bimbo Bad Ending - They're sad and sex obsessed, they'll fuck you

Non-Bimbo Good Ending - They're happy and grateful, they'll fuck you

Non-Bimbo Bad Ending - They're sad, they might fuck you because they hope it might cheer them up?

Having bimbo level determine how early h-scenes trigger is a good idea though, and since bimbo scales 1-10 it's easy enough to implement.

So the sex scene math could be like: 

if (bimbo level)+(conversations you've had so far)>10 {sex scene is available}

This would let you access a sex scene either with a non-bimbo with a completed story, a bimbo you've barely spoken to, or somewhere in the middle. Maybe the art for the sex scene is the same no matter what, but you gain additional dialogue if you've completed their story?

Ahh yeah that does make my idea not make much sense. I guess I'm just kind of a sucker for those "gotcha" moments.

As for the formula, I think it could also incorporate the player's stats in some way, adding them to the number they need to reach for an h-scene. This would represent the player character's personal attractiveness to the girl, as opposed to bimbo level (how open they are to sex) or their s-link level (how close you've become). You could also put a hefty negative modifier on the required number if you get either bad end, pretty much requiring you to bimboify them (or boost your stats)

These are all good ideas, I will add modifiers to the formula