I think its possible to win this one 100% of the time. The unlocking piece of logic is figuring out where Chancellor/Minion must be. (And of course the rules for how demons disguise!)
This is also a really good example of a game where it is helpful to kill a useful villager to know their alignment so you can use their powers with certainty and judge the other villagers who are making claims about the person you killed. You don’t have to to win, but it can help!