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I wonder if it would work to just guarantee certain encounters in the first few rounds.

Consider, for instance, that Balatro guarantees a pack of jokers in the first shop.

I am not sure to understand how this would help. If I put shop, bank, item 3 times in a row (for example) there would still be big differences in items. Or am I misunderstanding something?

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It’s okay for there to be big differences in items; games should be substantially different. And if you decide to pass up on your first couple of opportunities, then it’s on you if you lose. (In some games, I do restart until I get particularly interesting items, but that’s on me.)

Part of the problem, I think, is that it’s entirely possible to end up having no opportunity in the first three selections to get an item that is capable of doing meaningful damage/poison/bleed. For instance, selecting a “get a damage/poison/bleed item” option can give you something that boosts other items but does nothing itself. Shops give you a choice of items, but shops might have only boost items, or items that are too weak to meaningfully compete in the early game.

Here’s an example. Started a game. My first selection: Non-Damage shop, garden, 3 regen. The latter two can’t give me something that does damage/poison/bleed, but the first one could. So, either of the last two is a risk that I don’t get something useful by the first battle. If I want to play it safe, I can pick the Non-Damage shop.

In the Non-Damage shop, I found Morning star (boost item), Poison shield (does only 2 poison damage, not nearly enough to compete in the early game), or Bleeder (3 bleed, possibly enough to compete unless someone gets a strong early build). Getting something competitive required picking the shop of the three choices, and then there was only 1 out of 3 items that could compete.

Oh, and the items I see if I refresh the shop are a good sample of what I often see going into a Non-Damage shop: Barbed arrow (stun but no damage), Stone tower (defense only), Block ring (defense only).

Next round: room 99 (nice but can’t give anything damaging), 3 regen again (also nice but not damaging), and a generic “shop”. The generic shop again had 1/3 items that actually compete (Foil, 20 damage x 3); the other two were Chiffon (5 heal, no damage) and Sword (20 damage, very likely not enough unless you get lucky and go up against someone who also found nothing).

Started another new game. First choices: fountain (nope), random Precious item (nope), Non-Damage shop. Shop choices: healing item, block item, spiky shoes (usually too slow by itself).

What I’m getting at is that in order to be competitive for the first match, you either ignore most of the choices and hope you get something usable in the shop, or you pick the interesting choices and risk getting some losses before you find your footing in order to have a better mid-game.

Random items are great for the mid-game or late-game, when you’ve got a decent build and you’re looking for pieces to improve it or pivot, and when the average random item sells for a decent amount so worst case you get some decent gold. In the early game, randomness gets you killed, and the shops often don’t have any offensive items. I’ve had a number of games where there were no offensive options available at all.

I’m hoping there will be a way to reduce the need to restart early.

Okay got it!