Do you remember what Chance was? The board is solvable if chance was a knight or bomb.
NVM. Board is solvable even if I don’t know.
This is a great example of a board where ‘playing safe’ will ruin you.
Right away, Alchemist is MVP, and the board has two overall states, determined by 4. No corrupted characters is real, and plague is fake, and poisoner is sandwiched with a drunk and minion and demon. But the issue with that is the Knitter who would be telling the truth in right in the middle of where the sandwich would have to be. Assuming she is lying, I could work out the evil configuration. Or option 2, 4 is lying. and #1 pointing at 4 with so many potential lies on the board makes 4 a really good candidate for a stab.
If you can pivot from a wrongful kill into a victory then it is worth it to save plague to validate on a known corrupted.
Stab Knight 3 because protected by Alchemist and by a visible outcast and hope is not a drunk. Safe.
Flying stab 4 without the plague check because there could be five lies on the board, and up to 2 corruptions out of range of alchemist, making 8, 9, and 1 suspect. Also 6 could be minion in disguise and if there are no corruptions plague dies and I get to know a free good. Baa revealed.
7, 8, 9, and 1 are ALL tagged for lying.
The way start order works is that poisoner poisons a victim before plague doctor selects a good villager to corrupt. Unless poisoner is sandwiched on both sides or alchemist cures, a game with poisoner and plague will have two corruptions because plague will find someone. Alchemist, MVP that he is, has eliminated most of the board where corruptions could be. Which means between those four we have 2 corruptions, 1 poisoner, and 1 chancellor or drunk and fake outcast. No matter how you slice it, 4 lies.
#7 gets stabbed because they would have been cured if corrupt, and #7 can’t be drunk if you work through the logic (see next paragraph). revealing Chance.
(#7 can’t be drunk because if you work through the logic, #6 or #2 outcasts must be fake. If #6 PD is fake, then it isn’t poisoner because #5 would be corrupt. #6 chance would remove 1 corruption but both #8 and #1 are lying and they are split so poisoner couldn’t get both. That confirms #6 is real. If #2 is fake and #7 is drunk then #8 must be chance to be by an outcast and #2 poisoner poisoning #1. But that would mean #9, that plague must have corrupted, is telling the truth. so #7 cannot be drunk.)
#1 is flagged as good but corrupt because #9 is lying.
The following three scenarios are left:
[8E,9G,1G,2G] is valid with 8Poison
[8G,9E,1G,2G] is valid with 9Poison
[8D,9D,1G,2E] is valid with Bomb-Poison, and 8 or 9 drunk. 1 can’t be drunk in this scenario because 3 would have been poisoned.
Drunk is going to screw me over if I don’t eliminate the possibility. I have 10 health.
Stab at random #8 and #9 and take the five health penalty. Use plague on the other and stab if not corrupt. If both corrupt kill Bomb.
Edit: Fixed Logic error. It’s hard when I don’t have the board to manipulate!