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(+1)

A jumpscare is ineffective if the player expects it.  A jumpscare is cheap if the player had no way to predict it.  Both are bad, but ineffective is worse.  A good jumpscare is one that catches the player off guard, but the player blames herself for lowering her guard.

The best way to make jumpscares effective is to not overuse them.  Take your old film projector example.  Played out like you describe it, everybody is going to expect a jumpscare.  So let the creatures wander off again.  Repeat a few times.  Distract the player with something else.  Only then, when the player has lowered her guard, throw the jumpscare at her.

I like the idea that expectation hurts a jumpscare, but I don’t think expecting a scare = automatically ineffective. 

Anticipation can increase stress. That’s different from a cheap surprise that comes out of nowhere and feels unfair. Take FNAF 1 for example, you expect a jumpscare when the power runs out, but the uncertainty/randomness of the timing when the scare actually is, creates dread which makes the jumpscare work well, something I've done as well. 


And sometimes keeping the player in constant tension is better, where they know something bad is coming but don’t know exactly when, it can be more effective than letting them fully relax first. In the projector example, the goal isn’t to surprise after safety, but to stretch the stress and to make the players hair gray, and maybe if they're lucky the shift ends and they win before the jumpscare appears, making it feel much more rewarding.

If you want tension, then a jumpscare is the last thing you want.  Jumpscares kill tension, and tension kills jumpscares.  Pick one and stick with it.