I thought I could game the system by taking humble increments of ~5% each time, but the game does not lie. Eventually the bakery does always win with some quick fires here and there. All-in is never 100% safe. I'm not sure what the optimal portfolio of dough investment/savings would be to hedge against these black swan events, but I'm sure there are at least a dozen experts willing to sell me a book on how to get rich while loafing around my oven.
I think the gameplay probably needs a few more complications in order to really bloom. Perhaps something along the lines of juggling multiple active ovens, giving some visual indicator for how dangerous the current time duration has become, or added friction getting the bread out once its cooked.
The graphics paint a strong picture of our protagonist. Their litter bin is filled to the brim with former cookies turned carbon, but our hero's indomitable spirit perseveres until they make bread or run out of dough. Just like real culinary school!