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What do you  mean "fail chance"? You mean like when a popup shows up that says "Not Enough Arousal" or whatever the stat in question is? If so, then those are based on a flat threshold. Like, for a certain event to progress, you always need 15 Arousal.

If you're talking about things like the butt/boob groping events, I'm pretty sure those also run off a threshold system too, but instead you have a given amount of actions you can do based off your Arousal/Guilt/Trust, and some actions count as more actions. Like, spanking counts as more than just groping.

Alright, I see. It would be so thrilling if it was chance rate each time the event start, but maybe would be game breakin I don't know 🤷

Yeah,  that'd probably defeat the purpose of leveling it up in the first place. Plus, you could just save-scum to get every event at any point in time. And it doesn't make much sense game-logic-wise either. I could definitely see an event like that in the future, though, but that's up to the dev.