I also have the exact same problem. I did the "scene at camp" part and clicked "observe" but when I go back to the sawmill at night nothing happens. Do I need to visit the sawmill at a specific time?
You might need to talk to Jester first if you already defeated Scar. He shows up at ur house after the fight. The scene happens after you finish the Bandit Camp story and pay Logan a visit at night. If it still doesn't trigger for you, wait till night of the next day and see
