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(1 edit)

I was determining the dice probabilities for Grimwild, when I came to attempting to calculate for when Thorns are in play. Since I wasn’t sure how to do so I searched online and found your article on the subject.

I believe your numbers are a little off. For example, with zero thorns the “perfect” column is a little high; for this case there can only be a single 6; I determined the probability for this using anydice.com with something like output [count 6 in 6d6] and reading the row when there is a single 6.

The other cases with zero thorns I also used anydice.com with something like output [highest 1 of 6d6] since only the largest value is important. I asked Gemini what it calculated for the probabilities and I got confirmation the numbers were good. Since I still don’t know how to calculate when there are thorns, I again used Gemini and those are the number that appear in the image.

This is the only way I was able to send you some sort of message.

(1 edit)

Here is the data in CSV

# of d6,Outcome (% chance),,,,,,,,,,,,
,Disaster,,,Grim,,,Messy,,,Perfect,,,Critical
1,--,12.50,23.96,50.00,45.83,41.67,33.33,29.17,25.00,16.67,12.50,9.38,--
2,--,6.25,13.72,25.00,29.86,32.47,44.44,40.28,35.42,27.78,20.83,15.62,2.78
3,--,3.13,8.30,12.50,20.72,26.22,45.37,42.71,38.54,34.72,26.04,19.63,7.40
4,--,1.57,5.36,6.26,15.18,21.67,41.97,41.13,38.08,38.58,28.94,21.70,13.19
5,--,0.78,3.68,3.12,11.61,18.17,37.06,37.84,35.92,40.19,30.14,22.61,19.63
6,--,0.39,2.68,1.57,9.15,15.36,31.93,33.99,33.03,40.19,30.14,22.61,26.31
Thorns,0,1,2,0,1,2,0,1,2,0,1,2,n/a