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(+1)

This only works if the game is fair and uses true randomness (or close to) as if the dices are rigged, this means nothing
100 total hits, with each being 4-7, an average of 5,5.

100*5,5 = 550, so less then the goal, so you have less then a 50% chance to get it, more precisly:

we will firstly simplify it:

total amount of hits * lowest hit = 100*4 = 400.

goal is 600, so I will remove the lowest amount of the 600, so we have 200 left, with 0-3 per hit, with 100 hits, this is easier to see, as we don't have a wierd starting point, we have 4 options, that each have a 25% chance to happen

200 is goal, 0 is lowest, 300 is highest amount we can get

so 200/301 doesn't gain the goal (0 is an option, so we add that to the total amount as well as the amount that doesn't gain us anything), that is the chance of it not happening, but we want the chance of it happening so we do 1-200/301, (as 1 is all options, and 200/301 fail) so my answer is 101/301 options win, or  33.5548172757% chance of winning with this strategy, so no, you don't need that mutch luck, as you have a 50% or more chance on the second try (55.72), close to 70% on your thirth try, and so on, after only 13 tries you have more than 99% chance of it happening, so no, only on your very first roll is it "special"


also sorry for this kinda necro post? (i don't know when it is necroposting)

Either i'm the unluckiest person alive, or your calcs are wrong. Pretty sure it's the calcs since i'm pretty consistently 30-80 off.

if you can tell me any point that's wrong, It would help a bit more than that, I tried to do what I think was correct, imo the only place where I might have made a calc fault  is in the last part (like the 50% on second try and everything, because that's the only portion i forgot how to do atm, the rest is for me kinda logical, if you see something that tilts the chance making it way to high (like tickrate or smth making it harder) tell me, i can't really find anything to change. I can't do anything to make my calculations more correct if I don't know what variable is wrong.

(+1)

The chance is really low, I simulated about 1million trials (of 100 rolls from 4-7), and it is about 5 had 600 or higher as the total. So about 1 in 200,000 chance.

Another option is to assume normality (Gaussian distribution):

X = {4,5,6,7} with 25% chance each -> Mean = 5.5, Variance = 1.25

Call Y = X1 + X2 + ... + X100 (aka, 100 independent rolls of X)

Y mean = 550 (100 x 5.5), Y variance = 125 (100 x 1.25)

For a normal distribution to be > 600, with mean= 550, variance = 125, this has a chance of 0.999996128 which is a 1 in 258,257 chance.

So basically if you were able to try this every 20 seconds, you will be waiting for about a month or two to beat it with just air dice.

alr thank you for a good answer, i can now accept your reply as the truth, as ive not gotten that far in mathematics, i love it but yeah, or im going to a wierd language class, or im going to an art class, nothing with numbers atm

thank you for your information, I now know a bit more of math as well. have a good rest of your day
Ps the only reason i even declined the other person was because they didnt provide any proof at all

number of die

or do the water

I am incredibly confused, what do you mean? like are you correcting spelling mistakes, or what do you mean with number of die or do the water?

water die

number of die upgrade