Assuming that anyone that bought it from Itch counts the same as 5 dollar patreon members? The 12th. Otherwise I'd assume at most two weeks, which would be the 22nd/23rd.
One of the perks for the higher tier patreon subscribers is one week early access. Also I have heard the first release of an update often has bugs and crashes that need patches and he tries to get a stable build before he releases it here.
