Rory and Ocean are obviously involved in Jeudille's drama. But you didn't mention the third and fourth ones: Franz and Solera (who canot be killed... Mmh, what is she doing after the "Aethel event"? I wonder...) To get what's happening you should rather figure out who is innocent and why.
The guitly ones are numerous: Lorgna, whatever it is, function as a system where people are dragged by each other's logic. An innocent would be someone who can't be affected by those people.
I should have mentionned that in the description of the game (and I will soon): there are no enigma without answer, except those involving existential questions.
And... I don't know if I should mention it, but I will: I am moved by your interest for the game. Thank you.